Political News
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Filing Day: The Big Board, Oregon Senate
Earlier, I gave you the big board for the House -- here's the one for the Senate.
Again, these are all the filings posted online through 6:20 p.m. (One caveat: Some late filings may have yet to appear online, as they can be submitted on handwritten forms - and have to be data-entered by staff.)
Democrats on the left, Republicans on the right, incumbents in bold.
Democrats Republicans 3 Alan Bates Dave Dotterrer 4 Floyd Prozanski Marilyn Kittelman 6 Lee Beyer 7 Chris Edwards Karen Bodner 8 Dan Rayfield Frank Morse 10 Jeff Goodwin Jackie Winters William Dalton Sarah Arcune 11 Peter Courtney Michael W Forest 13 Timi Parker Larry George 15 Travis Comfort Bruce Starr Chuck Riley 16 Betsy Johnson Bob Horning 17 Suzanne Bonamici Stevan C Kirkpatrick 19 Richard Devlin Steve Griffith Mary Kremer 20 Martha Schrader Alan R Olsen 22 Chip Shields Marcus W Tempey Dwayne E Runyan 24 Rod Monroe Rob Wheeler Ron McCarty Dave Mowry 26 Brent Barton Chuck Thomsen
A few things worth noticing:
First, and most obviously, the Democrats are defending 10 incumbents and two open seats now held by Democrats. Republicans are only defending four incumbents and have no open seats. That's a tall order for Democrats.
Only one seat is going uncontested - SD 6, featuring Lee Beyer (and currently held by Sen. Bill Morrissette.)
Senator Rod Monroe is the only incumbent Senator of either party facing a primary challenge - and it's coming from two former candidates, Ron McCarty and Dave Mowry.
Rep. Chuck Riley faces a primary challenge from Travis Comfort for the right to take on Sen. Bruce Starr.
While the GOP primary for the right to face Sen. Chip Shields is barely relevant, the primary race in SD 19 is going to be a barnburner. Steve Griffith is a moderate Republican, and ran against Chris Garrett for the House in 2008. He's in a primary race with Mary Kremer -- the spouse of right-wing activist Rob Kremer. Pass the popcorn!
The race to succeed Rick Metsger looks to also be a barnburner. Rep. Brent Barton faces Chuck Thomsen, a four-term incumbent Hood River County Commissioner. This one is going to be big, folks.
Filing Day: The Big Board, Oregon House
One of the enduring traditions in Oregon politics is the gathering in the House chamber for the closing couple of hours of filing day. Politicians, lobbyists, hacks, and reporters gather to watch a Big Board of filings.
Well, since we're not there, I've produced a big board of our own - based on the filings reported online by the Elections Division. These are all the filings posted online through 6:20 p.m. (One caveat: Some late filings may have yet to appear online, as they can be submitted on handwritten forms - and have to be data-entered by staff.)
This is the board for the House. Democrats on the left, Republicans on the right, incumbents in bold.
Democrats Republicans 1 Eldon Rollins Wayne Krieger Lynn Kindred 2 Harry McDermott Tim J Freeman 3 Wally Hicks 4 Richard (Rick) Levine Dennis Richardson 5 Peter Buckley Sandra A. Abercrombie 6 Lynn Howe Sal Esquivel 7 Sara Byers Bruce Hanna 8 Paul R Holvey Simone Gordon 9 Arnie Roblan R Scott Roberts 10 Jean Cowan Becky Lemler Edward Johnston George Goldstein 11 Phil Barnhart Kelly R Lovelace 12 Elizabeth Terry Beyer Sean VanGordon 13 Nancy Nathanson Bill Young 14 Val Hoyle Dwight Coon 15 Bud Laurent Andy Olson 16 Sara A. Gelser Rose Cook 17 Richard Harisay Sherrie Sprenger Bruce Cuff 18 Rodney E. Orr Vic Gilliam 19 Claudia Kyle Kevin Cameron 20 Mike Powers Vicki Berger 21 Brian Clem John Alamarez Ken Jacobs Marvin Sannes 22 Betty Komp Kathy LeCompte Tom M Chereck Jr 23 Wesley W West Jim Thompson 24 Susan Sokol Blosser Jim S Weidner 25 Jim Dyer Kim Thatcher Douglas J Heuer 26 Sandy Webb Matt Wingard 27 Tobias Read Dan Lucas 28 Jeff Barker Bill Berg 29 Katie Riley Katie Eyre Brewer 30 David Edwards Shawn Lindsay 31 Brad Witt Ed DeCoste 32 Deborah Boone Lew Barnes 33 Mitch Greenlick Michael Bieker 34 Chris Harker Tyler Hill 35 Margaret Doherty Gordon Fiddes 36 Mary Nolan Diane Schendel 37 Gerritt Rosenthal Chael Sonnen Joelle Davis Will Rasmussen 38 Chris Garrett Rob Gardier 39 Toby Forsberg Bill Kennemer 40 Dave Hunt Deborah J Gerritzen 41 Carolyn Tomei Hugo Schulz 42 Jules Kopel Bailey Cliff Hutchison 43 Lew Frederick 44 Tina Kotek Kitty C. Harmon Richard Ellmyer 45 Michael Dembrow Anne Marie Gurney 46 Ben Cannon Russell Turner 47 Jefferson Smith Dee Flowers 48 Mike Schaufler Kayla Fioravanti 49 Nick Kahl Matthew Wand 50 Greg Matthews Andre Wang 51 Cheryl Myers John Swanson Patrick Sheehan 52 Suzanne VanOrman Mark Johnson 53 John Huddle Gene Whisnant 54 Judy Stiegler Jason Conger 55 Mike McLane Mike Wendel 56 Bill Garrard Karl Scronce 57 Jean A. Falbo Greg Smith Colleen MacLeod 58 Pete Wells Bob Jenson Michael Mathisen 59 Will Boettner John E Huffman Britt Storkson 60 Cliff Bentz
A few things worth noticing:
Republicans have candidates filed in 59 of 60 races. (Only Lew Frederick is going unchallenged.) Democrats have candidates filed candidates in 57 races.
Six incumbent House Republicans are facing primary challenges - Sprenger, Thatcher, Garrard, Smith, Jenson, Huffman. There are contested Republican primaries against three House Democratic incumbents - Clem, Cowan, Komp. And there are contested Republican primaries for two open seats (51 and 55.)
There is only one primary challenge to a Democratic incumbent - the challenge to Tina Kotek by perennial candidate Richard Ellmyer. There are only two other contested primary races, one in the open seat in HD 37, and one for the right to challenge Wayne Krieger in HD 1.
In short, the Democrats seem much more united in 2010 than do the Republicans. Interesting stuff.
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Thank goodness the filing deadline passed at 5 pm!
The number of candidates filing for Ted Wheeler's former seat since being named state Treasurer was like watching water gushing out of a fire hydrant into a very small bucket which bounced.Steve Novick in, then out of the bucket standing on the sidewalk. One of my political friends in Bend told me Steve better be careful or he might be thought of as a ditherer...well not in my book. Steve's leadership skills seem a better fit for a statewide office or at the federal level or becoming our in-house grassroots organizer against all nutty initiatives.
Even Greg Walden drew an opponent in the 2nd Congressional District, Joyce Segers out of Ashland. Rumor has it she received a standing ovation at the recent OEA endorsement festival.
Susan Sokol Blosser threw her hat into the political ring for HD 24, Yamhill. I'll drink to that!
And in Jackson County, 13 candidates have filed for two Jackson County Commissioner positions. The political reporter for the Medford Mail Tribune suggested the record number of candidates is due to the yearly pay and lack of jobs across the region. The "old guard" commissioners are experiencing the ever growing anti-incumbency mood of voters. I just hope all candidates have their eyes on the prize, improving our ailing economy.
Thank goodness the filing deadline passed at 5 pm.
Your thoughts....
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OR-SEN: New Poll Puts Wyden Lead at 30%
About a month ago, Rasmussen released a poll that suggested the Oregon Senate race might be a close one, with incumbent Dem Ron Wyden leading challenger Jim Huffman by just 14 points, 49% to 35%. Today, Grove Insight released numbers of a Wyden-commission poll that doubles the gap, 53%-23%. This is three points ahead of the approval rating Survey USA measured for Wyden a month ago. To see what role name recognition might play, they also polled respondents (500 likely voters) about who they would support in hypothetical contests between Wyden and Jason Atkinson and Greg Walden. Finally, Grove included the Libertarian, Marc Delphine. Have a look:
Wyden: 53%
Huffman: 23%
Delphine: 5%
Undecided: 20%
Wyden: 53%
Atkinson: 22%
Delphine: 5%
Undecided: 20%
Wyden: 52%
Walden: 24%
Delphine: 5%
Undecided: 18%
A few comments and then I'll leave it to you: 1) polls are all about the sample, and the numbers I received didn't come with crosstabs; 2) it looks like respondents in this sample are reading Huffman/Atkinson/Walden as a generic Republican and for the moment, Wyden is safely in front; 3) based on this sample, it looks like the libertarian numbers are coming straight out of the GOP pool; 4) this is extremely early in the process and suggestive not of what will happen in November but where things are now.
Your thoughts?

